Q4 2021 Inventory Planning in a Supply Chain Crunch

If you import products for Amazon, you already know 2021 has been a hard year for shipping. Container prices have shot up. Ports are congested. Ships wait days or weeks to unload. And FBA inventory limits mean you cannot always send in as much as you want.

With Q4 around the corner, here is how we are helping brands plan their holiday inventory in a supply chain crunch.

Assume everything takes longer

The first rule this year: add buffer time to every step.

• Production may take longer as factories deal with demand and material shortages.
• Ocean freight is slower, with delays at ports and in trucking.
• FBA check-in can take longer in the busy season.

If your normal lead time from order to Amazon shelf is 60 days, plan for 90 or more right now.

Know your FBA limits

Amazon has been using restock limits to manage space in its warehouses. These limits affect how much you can send in for each storage type. Check your limits in Seller Central and plan your shipments around them. Healthy inventory habits, like clearing slow stock and fixing stranded units, can help. We covered the basics in our guide to the IPI score.

Prioritize your best products

If space and stock are limited, put them where they earn the most. Rank your products by profit, not just sales. Make sure the top ones are fully stocked for Q4. Lower priority products can run leaner or be fulfilled from outside FBA.

Use a split strategy

• Keep extra stock in a 3PL or your own warehouse near Amazon, so you can send smaller, faster shipments as limits allow.
• Turn on merchant fulfilled backups for key products, as we described in our post on building a fulfillment backup plan.
• Consider air freight for a small top-up of your best sellers if margins allow.

Protect your margin

Higher freight costs eat into profit. Recalculate your landed cost per unit with this year’s shipping rates. If your margin has shrunk a lot, consider:

• A modest price increase, especially on products with strong reviews and rank.
• Lower ACoS targets on products whose margin has dropped.
• Fewer discounts during Black Friday on low margin items.

Plan for the worst case

Ask yourself: what if my main holiday shipment arrives three weeks late? Decide now how you would respond. Which products would you stop advertising? Which would you fulfill yourself? Having the plan ready makes it easier to act quickly.

Communicate with your suppliers

Stay in close touch with your factory and freight forwarder. Ask for regular updates on production and shipping. The earlier you know about a delay, the more options you have.

The bottom line

Q4 2021 will reward sellers who plan for delays, focus stock on their best products and protect their margins. Order early, add buffer time and have a backup ready. If you want help building your holiday plan, see our catalog and account operations service or request a free audit.

FAQs

How early should I order Q4 inventory in 2021?

Earlier than usual. Add at least 30 days of buffer to your normal lead time to allow for production, shipping and check-in delays.

What are Amazon restock limits?

Restock limits control how much inventory you can send to FBA based on your sales and inventory performance. Check your limits in Seller Central.

Should I raise prices because of shipping costs?

If higher freight costs have cut your margin, a modest price increase on strong products can make sense. Watch your conversion rate after the change.