Q4 2025 Holiday Planning With Tariffs: Stock, Prices and Ads

Q4 2025 will be unlike recent holiday seasons. Tariffs have raised costs for most importers. Duty free de minimis shipping has ended for all countries as of late August, not just China. Many brands ordered cautiously this spring and summer, and some are short on stock. Shoppers, meanwhile, are watching prices closely.

Here is how to plan your holiday season on Amazon with these pressures in mind.

1. Lock in your inventory plan now

• Check what you have in the US and what is on the way.
• Estimate Q4 demand for each product, including Prime Big Deal Days in October.
• Decide which products get priority for limited stock and capacity.
• Allow for slower customs processing on new shipments.

If stock is tight on some products, plan to slow ads on them rather than sell out early.

2. Price with your real costs

Update landed costs with current tariff rates. Recheck margins for every product. If you have not already, consider small, careful price increases before the busy season, as we covered in April in our post on tariffs.

3. Choose deals carefully

Deep discounts on top of higher costs can wipe out profit. For each deal:

• Calculate profit after the discount, fees and expected ad costs.
• Prefer deals on products that win new customers who buy again.
• Consider targeted offers to past customers instead of public discounts.

4. Plan your ad budget by phase

• Prime Big Deal Days in October: a moderate push to start the season.
• Early November: awareness with Sponsored Brands and video, moderate bids.
• Black Friday to Cyber Monday: the biggest share of the budget.
• December: focus on products that can deliver before the holidays.
• After Christmas: keep top campaigns running for gift card shoppers.

5. Update ACoS targets

Lower margins mean lower break-even ACoS. Set new targets product by product so you do not overspend chasing holiday sales that lose money.

6. Win on what Amazon does best

With low price apps facing higher import costs, Amazon’s strengths stand out: fast delivery, easy returns and trusted reviews. Keep stock steady for Prime delivery and make your listings answer questions clearly.

7. Prepare for the unexpected

Tariff rules have changed many times this year. Keep a simple plan for what you would do if costs rise again or a shipment is delayed. Which products would you slow down? Which would you push instead?

The bottom line

Q4 2025 is about protecting profit as much as growing sales. Lock in inventory, price with real costs, choose deals carefully and spread your budget across the season. If you want help planning your holiday season, see our full service account management or request a free audit.

FAQs

How do tariffs affect Q4 2025 on Amazon?

They raise costs for most importers, which lowers margins on discounts and ads. Brands need to update pricing, deal plans and ACoS targets.

Should I run Black Friday deals in 2025?

Yes, but choose them carefully. Check profit after discounts and higher costs, and focus on products that bring in repeat customers.

When should I send Q4 inventory to Amazon?

As early as your capacity allows, with extra time for slower customs processing this year.